School Choice Wisconsin has released a new study by the University of Minnesota’s John Robert Warren of graduation rates for the voucher and public school systems in Milwaukee. Here’s the highlight from the release:
Based on seven years of data, Professor Warren estimates that the graduation rate for students in Milwaukee’s choice program was about 18% higher than for students in MPS. Had MPS achieved the same graduation rate as students in the MPCP, an additional 3,939 Milwaukee students would have graduated from 2003 to 2009. Based on findings in separate research reported by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the annual impact from these additional graduates would have been about $4.2 million in extra tax revenue and $24.9 million in additional personal income.
Warren’s research shows a general pattern of growth in Milwaukee graduation rates. From 2003 to 2009 the MPS rate grew from 49% to 70%. For the MPCP the rate grew from 63% to 82%.
Of course, this is not a causal analysis. We do not know (and the study does not claim) that the higher grad rate among voucher students is caused by the program. A forthcoming analysis by the University of Arkansas’ School Choice Demonstration Project, led by my colleague, Patrick Wolf, should be able to address that issue.
But the this descriptive report is nevertheless encouraging. Not only do voucher students graduate at higher rates than MPS students, but both sectors have been improving their graduation rates. That finding is consistent with a scenario in which choice and competition are improving outcomes for all students — public and private — in Milwaukee.
